Forecasting dan Analisis Ekonomi Usia Harapan Hidup Indonesia: Implikasi Strategis untuk Indonesia Emas 2045

Abstract

This study analyzes the projection of Indonesia’s life expectancy  up to the year 2045 and its strategic implications for economic development toward achieving the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision. Using the ARIMA forecasting model processed through EViews software, based on data from BPS and the World Bank for the period 1996–2024, the best model was identified as ARIMA (1,1,1), with an AR(1) coefficient of 0.197, MA(1) of -0.612, a constant of 0.380, and statistically significant standard error (p < 0.05). The forecasting results indicate that Indonesia’s LE will increase by an average of 0.75 years annually, reaching approximately 79.03 years by 2045. While this improvement reflects the success of public health efforts, it also introduces structural challenges, such as increasing fiscal burdens and rising demand for elderly care services. From an economic perspective, this trend offers both risks and opportunities. If managed strategically — through health investment as human capital, pension system reform, encouraging elderly participation in the workforce, and transforming healthcare-related service sectors — the increasing LE can serve as a key driver of inclusive and sustainable economic growth. This study recommends that the Indonesian government adopt inclusive, evidence-based public policies to harness the remaining demographic dividend and prepare for the transition toward an aging society, ensuring progress toward the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision.

Keywords: Forecasting, Life expectancy, Golden Indonesia 2045, ARIMA, Health economics