Pengaruh Pasar Keuangan terhadap Pengangguran dengan Variabel Kontrol Ekonomi Makro

Rosalyta Rifany Putri; Arief Bachtiar

doi:10.55606/jaemb.v6i1.8897

Authors

Rosalyta Rifany Putri Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Arief Bachtiar Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55606/jaemb.v6i1.8897

Keywords:

Unemployment Rate, Market Capitalization, Domestic Credit Ratio, Bank Concentration, Macroeconomic

Abstract

This study aims to analyze how the financial market affects the unemployment rate in Indonesia during the period 1990 to 2023. Some of the factors studied include the previous year's unemployment rate, market capitalization, domestic credit-to-GDP ratio, bank concentration, as well as control variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, the national minimum wage, and the number of working population. The approach used is time series analysis with multiple linear regression. The results of the study show that the previous year's unemployment rate has a significant influence on the current unemployment rate, reflecting the persistence of unemployment. In addition, market capitalization has a negative effect on the unemployment rate, which indicates that the larger the market capitalization, the lower the unemployment rate. The ratio of domestic credit to GDP also shows a significant negative relationship, which means that increased access to credit can reduce unemployment. In contrast, high concentration of banks is positively associated with unemployment, indicating that the dominance of large banks can limit access to finance for small sectors and reduce employment. Control variables such as GDP, inflation, minimum wage, and the number of working population also show a significant influence on the unemployment rate. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that economic policies focus more on increasing access to the capital market, strengthening the MSME sector, and reducing banking concentration to reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia.

References

[1] D. R. Johnson and O. Blanchard, Macroeconomics, 6th editio. New Jersey: Pearson Education, 2006.

[2] Suryani, Wibowo, and Kurniawan, “Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi Makro terhadap Pengangguran di Indonesia: Analisis dari Tahun 1990 hingga 2020,” J. Ekon. Makro, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 98–112, 2021.

[3] R. Levine and S. Zervos, “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth,” Am. Econ. Rev., vol. 88, no. 3, pp. 537–558, 1998.

[4] A. Anwar, M., & Ginting, “Pengaruh Kapitalisasi Pasar Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia.,” J. Ekon. Indones., vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 123-145., 2019.

[5] N. Fatwa, “Persaingan Perbankan Berdasarkan Jenis Bank Di Indonesia,” AkMen J. Ilm., vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 630–644, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://e-jurnal.nobel.ac.id/index.php/akmen/article/view/110

[6] N. G. MANKIW, Makroeconomic, vol. 7. New york, 2010.

[7] A. S. Nasution, E. L. Amanda, R. P. Pasaribu, M. Y. Fajri, and M. Rinaldi, “Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Di Jawa Tengah,” J. Media Akad., vol. 3, no. 6, 2025.

[8] S. Sukirno, Pengantar Teori Ekonomi. Raja Grafindo Persada, 1994.

[9] S. Arifin and Firmansyah, “Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan Dan Kesempatan Kerja Terhadap Pengangguran Di Provinsi Banten,” J. Ekon., vol. 7, no. 2, 2017, doi: 10.35448/jequ.v7i2.4978.

[10] Hardiyanti, “Analisis Komparatif Dampak Kredit terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia Sebelum dan Sesudah Krisis Moneter,” Skripsi. Univ. Hasanuddin. Makassar, 2012.